The MLB season is nearly a week old, yet if you've been following the daily picks Chip Patterson, Will Brinson and myself have been offering every day, you've yet to see a single baseball game make the docket. That changes today.
While I can't speak for Chip and Will, I know that I've held off on baseball picks for a few reasons. One is that with March Madness in full swing, it just seemed to make more sense to focus on that. Another is that, while I enjoy picking baseball games, I like to wait a bit to get a sense of the landscape.
The final reason is that, since I'm sharing these picks, a lot of the general public isn't as familiar with baseball betting as they are in other sports because it can be a little different. While spreads and totals dominate the gambling landscape in football and basketball, baseball betting has both, but while I pick baseball totals (and have one tonight), I prefer the moneyline over the spread, and that leads to a different kind of feeling.
Yes, you're just picking a team to win, but unlike in spread betting, when you would need to win roughly 52.4 percent (assuming standard juice) of the time to make a (minimal) profit, you can only be correct 40 percent of the time betting baseball money lines and make a nice profit if you're picking the right underdogs. The biggest adjustment is to your bankroll, as you'll see significant swings.
My moneyline pick today, however, is not an underdog, but a favorite, one I see some value in based on the pitching matchup. So let's get to it. All odds are via Westgate.
1. St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Cardinals -106
I don't typically recommend taking road favorites in divisional matchups as a strategy, but I think there's value on this line. Miles Mikolas joined St. Louis' rotation last season after spending three seasons in Japan with the Yomiuri Giants. He was an excellent pitcher for the Giants, and he's been just as excellent since returning to the states to pitch for St. Louis. And he's been terrific against the Pirates.
Mikolas made five starts against Pittsburgh last season and posted a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings with 26 strikeouts and only four walks. Furthermore, looking at Statcast data, Pirates hitters have a difficult time squaring him up. Current Pirate hitters have a wOBA (weighted on-base average, which is a catch-all stat to measure hitters) of .287 against him in 98 plate appearances. Their expected wOBA (based on launch angle and exit velocity of contact made) is even lower at .240. Now, for context, a league average wOBA is about .320. Anything below .290 should be considered terrible. The only Pittsburgh player to have an expected wOBA over .290 against Mikolas is Francisco Cervelli at .481. He's hit him well; nobody else has. So with the price at -106, I think there's a lot of value on the Cardinals here.
Staying in the NL Central, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the Cubs-Braves matchup 10,000 times and has a strong play on the -110 moneyline that's cashing in 56 percent of simulations. You can see which team the computer recommends here.
2. Houston Astros at Texas Rangers: Under 9
One thing we have to consider when picking baseball games that we don't have to worry about in basketball or hockey is the weather. Like football, the one force that can affect a game more than any other in baseball is the wind. It's not rocket science to know that if the wind is blowing out, it can carry baseballs further, and if it's blowing in, it can turn home runs into fly outs.
Some parks are affected more than others by the wind, and Globe Life Park in Arlington is one of them. As I write this, the current forecast calls for 16 mph winds blowing in from center. That's going to help the pitchers, as will tonight's home plate umpire, Ron Kulpa, who tends to have a pitcher-friendly strike zone.
How about in daily fantasy leagues? DFS millionaire Mike McClure is sharing his tournament lineups over at SportsLine, including stacking Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers against Marco Estrada. You can see his picks right here.
3. Boston Celtics at Miami Heat: Under 212.5
OK, we can put the nerdy baseball stats away for a minute and get to some old-fashioned NBA unders. Unlike my two baseball picks, I don't have a ton of numbers to throw your way to support this one. All I can tell you is that this total is a little too high for my taste based on this matchup, and there's value on the under. The fact these two teams just played a couple of days ago and will have some extra familiarity with one another (more than they already do) could make scoring a bit more difficult than usual.
The SportsLine Projection Model also sees a lot of value in Celtics-Heat on Wednesday, pegging one side of the spread to hit in 60 percent of simulations. But the computer's total pick is even better, cashing 64 percent of the time. See those picks only at SportsLine.
