While the end was disappointing, the 2022 season was a fun and memorable ride for the Philadelphia Phillies. The club ended its 11-year postseason drought and did it despite entering June with a 21-29 record. Manager Joe Girardi was fired, Rob Thomson took over on an interim basis, and the Phillies played at a 95-win pace the rest of the year. The surge took them to the World Series and to within two wins of a championship.
"They have accomplished a lot. It's still disappointing though," Thomson, who is now the full-time manager, said about his players after the Game 6 loss. "I told them after the game, I said, 'You guys have nothing to be ashamed of. You don't need to hang your head for anybody.' Because they came to the ballpark every day and worked hard and played hard and played as a team. Had a lot of fun. They grinded through a lot of obstacles. I'm just so proud of all of them. I really am."
The Phillies are a very good team but also a flawed team, and baseball operations head Dave Dombrowski and his staff will be tasked with cleaning up those flaws this offseason. It won't be easy -- it never is -- but there's a strong foundation already in place, and that's more than half the battle. Now it's about augmenting and supplementing that foundation.
With that in mind, here are three important questions facing the Phillies this offseason.
1. Will they sign a top shortstop?
The Phillies have spent a lot of money in recent years and they're in position to spend even more this offseason. They went over the $230 million competitive balance tax threshold in 2022 and FanGraphs puts their 2023 CBT payroll at $173 million, well under the $233 million threshold. That $173 million includes estimates for arbitration-eligible players and the like. Assuming owner John Middleton signs off on exceeding the CBT threshold again, Dombrowski has a nice chunk of change to spend this winter.
High-end shortstops dominate the free agent market: Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are free agents now and Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa will join them once they officially exercise their opt out clauses this coming week. Rookie shortstop Bryson Stott fared well under Thomson but a) there's some thought Stott is destined for second or third base long-term, and b) you don't let someone like Stott stand in the way of signing Correa or Turner.
Bryce Harper successfully lobbied ownership and the front office to trade for and then lock up J.T. Realmuto, and you don't have to try too hard to envision Harper doing the same with Turner. They were teammates with the Nationals and Harper has praised his game -- "Turner is my favorite player in the league, it's not even close," he said in August -- plus Turner checks a lot of boxes. He would improve the defense, provide more contact, add a nearly unmatched speed element, etc.
Whether it's Turner or Correa or Bogaerts or Swanson, the Phillies have the wherewithal to sign a top free-agent shortstop and they should be motivated to sign one as well. It's the easiest way to substantially improve the team offensively and defensively. Stott, who took impressive at-bats throughout the postseason, would only be displaced rather than replaced. There's room for Stott and a top free-agent shortstop on the roster. It's not an either/or situation.
2. What's going with Harper's elbow?
Back in April, Harper injured his elbow making a throw in the outfield and it's a significant injury. He has a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament (i.e. the Tommy John surgery ligament), and he was unable to play the field the rest of the season. Harper did begin a throwing program in the second half, but the Phillies shut it down in August and had him focus on hitting so he could return to the lineup as quickly as possible from his broken thumb.
"That's kind of on the back burner for me right now," Harper said about the elbow in August (video). "I just want to get back in the lineup, get my swing going, and get ready so I can get back in the lineup. I'm not concerned about getting back to throwing as soon as possible because I really want it to heal so I don't have to do anything in the offseason, go under the knife or anything like that."
So what happens now? Does Harper resume a throwing program and attempt to rehab the injury, or is Tommy John surgery on the table? Position players have a shorter Tommy John surgery rehab than pitchers but it is still several months, and it may cut into Harper's availability next season. For reference, Harper's former Phillies teammate Didi Gregorius had his Tommy John surgery on Oct. 17, 2018, and did not return to the MLB lineup until June 7, 2019.
It would be possible for Harper to continue serving as the DH while rehabbing his elbow (Shohei Ohtani did this in 2019). That said, there needs to be clarity at some point. Will Harper try to rehab the injury or will he have surgery? Either way it will impact his offseason preparation, and perhaps his availability early next season as well. The Phillies need to nail down the status of their best player, ideally sooner rather than later.
3. What happens with Hoskins and Nola?
First baseman Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are Philadelphia's two longest-tenured players and both are a year away from free agency (assuming the Phillies pick up Nola's $16 million club option for 2023, and why wouldn't they?). Nola is certainly to remain with the Phillies in 2023. The question is when do they approach him about an extension? Hoskins' status is less certain. He is a trade candidate as the club looks to diversify its offense and improve the defense.
Starting with Nola, he's logged a lot of innings the last few years (an MLB-leading 871 2/3 since 2018) and he turns 30 in June, so chances are an extension will buy a lot of decline years. That will be a consideration. The Phillies gave Zack Wheeler five years and $118 million at age 30 three years ago. Robbie Ray got five years and $115 million at age 30 last offseason. Is that the benchmark for a Nola extension? Or is it closer to Madison Bumgarner's deal (five years and $85 million at age 30)?
Hoskins has been reliably 25 percent better than the average hitter the last few years according to various park-adjusted metrics and he's a steady power threat. He's also a streaky hitter prone to striking out in bunches. Also, he's a liability at first base defensively. His best position is DH, which is a problem because that applies to no fewer than three other Phillies as well. MLB Trade Rumors projects Hoskins to make $12.6 million in 2023, a hefty sum but not that onerous.
The Phillies could trade Hoskins and either slide Alec Bohm over to first base, or import a new first baseman (Anthony Rizzo's great glove and contact bat would fit well). It seems unlikely Philadelphia will sign Hoskins to a long-term extension because you can only have so many DH types on the books, so they could either bring him back for one last run in 2023, or trade him and attempt to address deficiencies on offense and in the field.
The money makes some trade partners more likely than others, though the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, and Twins stand out as potential suitors for Hoskins. Nola's option will be picked up and he'll remain with the Phillies in 2023. Whether they work out a long-term extension is another matter. Hoskins' future is less certain. He's a trade candidate this offseason in a move potentially geared toward improving the defense and diversifying the offense.
