The 2022 San Diego Padres season came to a disappointing and rather abrupt ending on Sunday, as the Phillies turned an eighth-inning deficit into a lead and then clinched the National League pennant with a win.
Losing the NLCS sends the Padres home with a bitter taste. Once they're able to let everything sink in, however, they'll all realize this was a very successful season. The Padres made the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2006. They made the NLCS for the first time since 1998 and knocked their long-time nemesis, the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers, out in the NLDS round.
Along the way, the Padres drew their highest attendance since 2004 (Petco Park's first year of operation) and added a superstar to the mix. They seem to be pretty well set up for next season, though some questions remain.
Let's take a look.
Soto and Machado
Manny Machado is coming off a season in which he should finish no worse than second in NL MVP voting. He was a force on both offense and defense in both the regular season and the playoffs. He's still only 30 years old. There's one year left on his deal before he could opt for free agency and there's every reason to believe he'll again be one of the best players in baseball next year.
Juan Soto is coming off a down season. Of course, a down season for him is a 149 OPS+ with 25 doubles, 27 homers, 62 RBI, 93 runs and 5.6 WAR. He led the majors in walks, helping push his on-base percentage to .401. The .242 batting average was what held him back. Let's keep in mind next year is his age-24 season and he hit .322/.471/.572 (185 OPS+) in 2020-21 combined. My hunch is with some stability -- instead of dealing with trade rumors -- on a contender, he'll get back closer to those levels in 2023.
That gives the Padres two superstars.
Or three ...
The return of Tatis
Fernando Tatis, Jr. finished third in MVP voting in 2021 (Soto was second) despite a shoulder injury limiting him to 130 games. A broken wrist and PED suspension cost him all of 2022. He's had surgery to repair his balky lefty shoulder and two surgeries on his wrist. Thanks to the Padres getting to take part in 12 playoff games, he only has 20 games left on his suspension.
That means that for up to 142 games, the Padres could have three players in their lineup who finished in the top three of MVP voting in the last two years.
Tatis has work to do in the clubhouse, surely, and will have to prove he's capable of being his old self with a whole year off. The odds are he'll be just as good. Regardless of anyone's feelings on PEDs, they aren't magic pills that make untalented players the best in the world. There's a base of talent on Tatis that isn't going away. He'll be 24 years old and his shoulder and wrist are fixed.
The supporting cast?
As we know all too well (thank you, Angels), just a few star players isn't enough. There needs to be a supporting cast.
There is.
Jake Cronenworth is an established 4-WAR guy and is still south of 30 years old. Ha-Seong Kim had a very good season in taking over shortstop. Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro are a capable duo behind the plate. Trent Grisham had a bad year at the plate, but he was good in 2021 and still posted 2.4 WAR this season. They'll need to figure out if they want to pick up Jurickson Profar's $8.33 million option, but they should.
It's possible that's the starting lineup. They could shift Kim to second base, with Tatis coming back (or Tatis could play the outfield), and Cronenworth to first, as Brandon Drury and Josh Bell are both free agents.
They could make outside additions and prospects could also figure, but the foundation is in place.
Rotation in good shape (with questions)
The big three starters in the playoffs were right-handers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove with lefty Blake Snell. All three are back next year.
Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents and the Padres are probably closing in on their limit in player salary (Baseball-Reference estimates them at $177.7 million already next season and that's before any options, such as Profar). Plus, neither was very effective, overall, in 2022.
Will Nick Martinez get another shot in the rotation? He was much more effective out of the bullpen. There's a $7 million player option, so it's not even a sure thing he's back.
Lefty Adrián Morejón could be an option. He was only a reliever after returning from Tommy John surgery this season, but he's a former top-50 prospect and will only be 24 years old.
Another lefty, Jay Groome, could also figure in the mix here. He came over from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer deal and made 10 starts for Triple-A El Paso, pitching to a 3.16 ERA. Could Ryan Weathers get things figured out and his career back on track? He's still only 22.
Also, Darvish will be 36 next year. How much mileage is left on that right arm?
As noted, there are a lot of questions. They look to have a very nice top three, though.
Bullpen
Josh Hader was back in the playoffs and he'll be back next year. Robert Suarez has a $5 million player option and might test free agency for his big payday. Even if they lose him, Luis García is back and Drew Pomeranz will be back from surgery. Tim Hill and Nabil Crismatt will be back and maybe they'll unearth someone like Suarez again?
This has the makings of a quality group.
Can they finally win the West?
The next step after dispatching the Dodgers in the playoffs would be to win the West and skip the Wild Card Series by getting a bye. The gap was a monstrous 22 games, though.
It wouldn't be a good bet to take the Padres over the Dodgers in the West for next year at this moment, and the Padres have a lot of work to do this coming offseason, possibly on a limited budget for outside additions.
Still, an optimistic view of the Padres shows them with three MVP-caliber position players, three starters capable of throwing like an ace on any given night, a bullpen bolstered by a guy who has won three Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year awards and a good supporting cast. That likely means another trip to the playoffs, and anything can happen there.
