For most teams 92 wins and a fifth consecutive postseason berth would be a successful season. For the New York Yankees, it was so disappointing that GM Brian Cashman called the team "unwatchable" after last season, and the club made significant changes to the infield over the winter. The changes everyone expected? No, not really. But changes nonetheless.
"We stayed in touch and evaluated all the market availabilities through trade and free agencies, and then placed our bets," Cashman said earlier this week. "We were able to attack what was available to us once we pulled those down and closed doors on other things. You only have a certain amount of money to spend, and once you fill those needs you keep moving."
The Yankees needed to improve their infield defense and also diversify a lineup that included too many swing-and-miss righties. By and large, they accomplished that. They also passed up the best the offseason had to offer despite five consecutive heartbreaking postseason exits and having only so many more bites at the apple with the Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole-led core. Let's preview the season in the Bronx.
Win total projection, odds
2021 record: 92-70 (lost Wild Card Game)2022 Sportsline projection: 86-76World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +1100Projected lineup
1B Anthony RizzoRF Aaron JudgeLF Joey GalloDH Giancarlo Stanton3B Josh DonaldsonCF Aaron Hicks2B Gleyber TorresSS Isiah Kiner-FalefaC Kyle HigashiokaBench: C Ben Rortvedt, IF DJ LeMahieu, IF/OF Miguel Andújar, OF Tim Locastro
The Yankees finished 10th in the American League in runs scored last offseason and they traded offense for defense at first base (Luke Voit to Rizzo) and catcher (Gary Sánchez to Higashioka) over the winter. They also improved their defense at shortstop and third base. The plan is to use Stanton in the outfield more often and LeMahieu as a super utility guy who starts 4-5 times a week. Stanton in right field, Judge in center field, LeMahieu at third base, and Donaldson at DH is an alignment we could see regularly.
Projected rotation
RHP Gerrit ColeLHP Jordan MontgomeryRHP Luis SeverinoRHP Jameson TaillonLHP Nestor CortesInjuries, including Tommy John surgery, have limited Severino to 34 1/3 innings the last three seasons, postseason included. He is healthy now and the Yankees are hopeful he can be something close to the pitcher who received Cy Young votes in 2017 and 2018. Taillon had ankle surgery in October and is ahead of schedule with his rehab, so much so that he'll be in the Opening Day rotation in place of Domingo Germán, who is on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder issue. Cole is an ace and Montgomery is reliably above average. Behind them, New York's rotation is loaded with upside, but also quite a bit of risk.
Projected bullpen
Even with Zack Britton expected to miss the season following Tommy John surgery, the Yankees have a deep bullpen with several closer-caliber relievers, and they've shown the ability to unearth quality relievers in other organizations. Loáisiga had a monster breakout season a year ago and is one of those guys with stuff so lively it makes you wonder how anyone ever gets a hit. Holmes and Peralta were revelations after coming over in minor trades. Teams are set begin the season with two extra roster spots following the truncated spring training, which could put righty Albert Abreu on the Opening Day roster. Abreu, a former top prospect who got big outs at times last year, is out of minor-league options and must pass through waivers to be sent to Triple-A.
1. Will they lock up Judge?
At some point in the next week or so, the Yankees will deliver a presentation to Judge's representatives regarding a long-term contract extension. He can become a free agent after the season, and while injuries have been an issue at times, Judge has never not performed at an MVP level when healthy. Last season he finished fourth in the voting.
Judge indicated he has set an Opening Day deadline for an extension. Here's what he told the New York Post's Dan Martin when he reported to spring training two weeks ago:
"If we're able to talk and get something done in spring training before the season starts, that would be ideal, especially since this is an important year," Judge said in his first comments of the spring. "We've got a lot of things to focus on during the course of the year, winning a division and winning a championship here in New York. I don't want contract talks or extensions and all that talk to be a distraction throughout the year. So, if we're able to agree to something here in the spring before we head up to New York, that's wonderful and it would be an honor. If not, we'll talk after the season."
The Yankees don't give out long-term extensions often -- they tend to let their players play out their team control years, and if they have to win a bidding war to keep someone as a free agent, they'll do it -- but Judge is a special case, and it makes sense to explore an extension now. Maybe he says yes to a sweetheart deal. Who knows? If not, then the Yankees will be right where they would be if they didn't approach him about a deal at all.
Judge turns 30 soon after Opening Day. Kris Bryant turned 30 in January and signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Rockies. Marcus Semien turned 31 in September and he received a seven-year, $175 million deal from the Rangers. Historically, players who sign extensions one year prior to free agency get free agent dollars. There's no discount, and the Bryant and Semien contracts suggest Judge can reasonably seek seven years and $200-plus million.
The Yankees owe Cole, Stanton, Hicks, and LeMahieu a combined $83 million per year through 2025, meaning a Judge extension would likely push them to $110 million for five players from 2023-25. Can the Yankees afford it? Of course. Is Hal Steinbrenner willing to afford it? That's the better question. All indications are the Yankees want to sign Judge long-term. Working out an extension isn't a slam dunk though, and they have two weeks to do it before Opening Day.
2. Will they regret not making bigger moves?
The Yankees came into the offseason needing a shortstop and wanting a lefty-hitting first baseman with good defense. Five of the very best shortstops in baseball were free agents (Semien, Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story), and there was a high-end first baseman who fits those needs available in free agency (Freddie Freeman) and another via trade (Matt Olson).
Rather than flex their financial muscle and/or trade top prospects, the Yankees passed on all those players and settled for the sixth-best available shortstop and the third-best available first baseman. Add in absorbing the $50 million remaining on Donaldson's contract, punting offense at catcher, and not bringing in any pitching despite an emphasis on run prevention, and you get an an offseason ripe for second-guessing.
"(Kiner-Falefa has) got a chance to be a good player. He's going to get that chance to be the everyday guy and run with it. He brings confidence to our defense," Cashman said earlier this week. "We're hopeful that he and everybody else that we have will do what we hope and see where it takes us. And we're going to run out the highest payroll we've ever had in our history."
Will the Yankees be better defensively? Yes. I don't think there's a question about that. Will they be better offensively? That depends on Donaldson, who will play the season at age 36, and whether the new hitting coaches (all three of them) can get LeMahieu and Torres (and Rizzo) back to where they were prior to 2021. Judge and Stanton stayed healthy and mashed last year, and the Yankees were still 10th in the league in runs. Losing either to injury this year would thin the lineup real quick.
The bottom line is this: Báez (twice), Correa, Seager, Semien (twice), Story, Francisco Lindor, and Trea Turner all changed teams within the last 14 months, and none of them are Yankees. Rizzo hit .240/.343/.432 the last two years, close to the .254/.335/.445 league average at first base, and better first basemen were available. It's not often free agency and the trade market match up with your needs as well as they did for the Yankees this offseason. Rather than take advantage, the Yankees went for the second-tier options, and hey, it could work. If it doesn't, this winter will be viewed as a missed opportunity for years to come.
3. Will the rotation hold up?
In Cole, the Yankees have a no-doubt ace at the height of his powers. For all the talk about foreign substances, Cole had a 3.28 ERA with 107 strikeouts in 74 innings in his first 13 starts following the crackdown, including a 129-pitch shutout in Houston. A late-season hamstring issue sent him limping to the finish, but overall, Cole was excellent in 2021.
Behind Cole the Yankees have the steady and reliable Montgomery, and then a group of starters with upside but also some sort of lingering concern. Severino has barely pitched the last few seasons because of multiple arm injuries. Taillon is coming off offseason ankle surgery. Cortes' track record of success in the big leagues is about 100 innings long. Germán will miss at least the first two months with his third shoulder injury in three years. There's not much certainty there.
The depth options includes righty Luis Gil, who was impressive at times in spot start duty last season, as well as fellow prospects Clarke Schmidt and Deivi García. Schmidt's dealt with a series of elbow issues the last few years and García had a disaster 2021 that saw him allow 73 runs and 21 homers in 90 2/3 Triple-A innings. As with the Severino, Taillon, and Cortes, New York's depth pitchers have a lot of upside, but are also far from sure things.
The Athletics are in fire sale mode and either Sean Manaea (a rental) or Frankie Montas (two years of team control) would slot in nicely behind Cole and Montgomery. It's a tricky spot, because the Yankees want to give Severino and Taillon and Cortes a chance to pitch to their abilities, but you always want to add more depth too. I say go get Manaea or Montas and figure it all out later. Someone will get hurt, it's inevitable, and the Yankees will be glad they have that extra arm when they do.
With this same pitching staff (bullpen included), the Yankees posted the fifth best park-adjusted ERA in baseball last season. Their pitching was underrated. It's not just Cole and a few relievers. They're banking on those same pitchers performing the same way in 2022. There's enough upside that this could legitimately be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball again. There's also enough risk where it could crumble, and leave us wondering what the Yankees were thinking not adding more arms.
