The New York Yankees lost again to the Houston Astros on Thursday night, dropping a 3-2 contest to put themselves in a 2-0 hole in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series ahead of Saturday's Game 3. They struck out 13 times, bringing them to 30 for the series, and left nine men on base. But for a moment late in the game, there was hope.
In the eighth inning, Aaron Judge hit a fly ball to right field that appeared headed for the stands until Kyle Tucker corralled it at the wall. Take a look:
Had Judge's ball turned into a souvenir, the way 62 of them did during the regular season, the Yankees would have taken a 4-3 lead. There's no guarantee they would have sealed the victory -- the Astros would have had six outs to work with -- but the potential swing in outcome made it a popular topic of conversation afterward.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone provided the most notable quotable of the evening, saying that he believed Judge would have notched a home run were it not for the crosswinds generated by Minute Maid Park's retractable roof being open. (Boone noted that the wind had stymied one of Tucker's own batted balls earlier in the night.)
"I think the roof open kind of killed us. I think it's a 390 [foot] ball," Boone said as part of his postgame media availability.
Judge, for his part, said that he didn't think the ball was going to be a home run because of the wind. "I hit it to the wrong part of the park for sure."
How valid is Boone's comment? It depends on your calculations. Judge's batted ball had an exit velocity of 106.3 mph and a projected distance of 345 feet, or 19 feet beyond the right-field wall at Minute Maid Park. Nevertheless, MLB.com's Sarah Langs noted that Statcast indicated the ball would be a home run in just one park: fittingly enough, Yankee Stadium.
Analyst Devan Fink reached a different conclusion. He noted that similarly struck flyballs traveled an average of 414 feet during the regular season, and even those that went to the opposite field (like Judge's) had around 395 feet of distance. Judge wouldn't have needed even that many in order to give the Yankees a late lead.
Different methodologies and approaches will result in different answers. Fair enough.
Of course, none of this matters. The ball didn't go out. The Yankees cannot travel back in time and stipulate that the roof be closed. They were not the only team exposed to the elements, either. The Astros were too, and they managed fine. That Judge's ball came at what would be a pivotal moment is just how baseball goes sometimes. It's unfortunate if you're a Yankee or a Yankees fan, it's very fortunate if you're an Astro or an Astros fan.
With all that established, the Yankees have bigger issues to work through on Friday's travel day than wind calculations. Through two games, they've struck out in 30 of their 65 at-bats. (The Astros, conversely, have only punched out eight times.) If the Yankees are going to get back into this series, they'll need to find a way to put the lumber on the ball more frequently.
